Of the six governorships that were elected this June 5, the PAN-PRI-PRD coalition took two: Aguascalientes, with a PAN candidate, and Durango, with a PRI candidate.
But the PAN lost two states it governed: Quintana Roo and Tamaulipasso it will be left with only five government palaces: Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Querétaro and Yucatán, in addition to Aguascalientes.
The PRI lost two where it was in government: Hidalgo and Oaxaca and, once the new governors take office, the tricolor will only govern in three states, Coahuila and the State of Mexico, which will go to elections in 2023, and Durango.
Morena, on the other hand, won four states that she did not govern: Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas, for which the lopezobradorismo will close the year governing 22 of the 32 states.
It may be that their supporters and voters continue to see them as oil and water, they may not yet overcome the tsunami of 2018 or it may be that the loss of prestige after decades of governments still weighs on the mood of the electorate. The truth is that the alliance between the three traditional parties has not been effective in winning governorships, nor has it become an attractive option for citizens.
In 2021, the three parties were allies in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Campeche, Colima, Michoacán, Nayarit, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tlaxcala, and Zacatecas. And their candidates lost in all 11 states.
In addition, PRI and PRD allied in Guerrero, and also lost.
In fact, the only two states to have won these matches in 2021 were not with the full alliance: Querétaro won the PAN alone, and in Chihuahua Governor Maru Campos was nominated by the PAN and the PRD.
In that year, the alliance was effective in snatching Morena’s hegemony in Mexico City, and to prevent the 4T from being done again with the qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies. They are not minor triumphs, but they were of no use so that, in this 2022, the majority of citizens perceive that the united opposition is a better option than lopezobradriismo.
Yesterday’s numbers are overwhelming.
In three states where Morena’s candidates won the voting differences are staggeringaccording to the Quick Counts released by the electoral authorities.
Julio Menchaca (Morena-PT) triumphed in Hidalgo with a vote that will be between 60 and 63 percent. His rival Carolina Viggiano (PRI-PAN-PRD) will reach between 30 and 32.7 percent. Namely, Morena won two to one this state that the PRI had never lost.
Solomon Jara won Oaxaca for the Morena-PT-PVEM-PUP coalition with a vote of between 58 and 61 percent. While Alejandro Avilés (PRI-PRD) will reach between 24.3 and 27.2 percent. Morena won with more than double the votes.
in Quintana Roothe vote for Mara Lezama (Morena-PT-PVEM) is between 55.3 and 58.2 percent; while the alliance member Laura Fernández (PAN-PRD) obtained between 15.1 and 17.1 percent. Almost three to one.
The Alliance for Mexico won Aguascalientes and Durango with equally clear differenceswhich should not give rise to major claims by the Morena leadership.
The PRI Esteban Villegas won Durango with a vote that will fluctuate between 52.2 and 55.2 percentand the morenista Marina Vitela finally obtained between 37.8 and 40.9 percent.
in Aguascalientes, Teresa Jiménez (PAN-PRI-PRD) will obtain between 51.5 and 54.9 percentwhile the brunette Nora Ruvalcaba will be between 32.7 and 35.3 percent.
With yesterday’s elections, the electoral map has been reconfigured and, two years from 2024, things continue to settle in favor of the president’s party.
Surely, in the barracks of The Alliance for Mexico will have to rethink its strategy; assess the candidacies, campaigns and proposals launched in 2022, and weigh the impact of issues such as the audios of “Alito” on the general image of the alliance.
Just yesterday, PAN, PRI and PRD supporters assured that, regardless of the result, they must remain united until 2024because it is the only way to compete with the Morenista machinery.
They have no choice but to stick together, they say. The question is how to be attractive to the public with a discourse that goes beyond criticizing Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
The alliance will use the argument of the interference of organized crime, as a pretext to justify their defeatsbut he should assess whether it is worth continuing to deepen that narrative without presenting concrete evidence of his accusations.
With the voting differences recorded yesterday, there should be no room for the disqualification of the elections in terms of organization, nor for the post-election conflict. However, the challenges are already announced.
In the first minutes after the polls closed, Mario Delgado, leader of Morena, and his allies came out to sing five victories, accusing that if Aguascalientes lost it was because the state government perpetrated “a state election.”
On the side of the alliance, the PAN member Marko Cortés, the PRI member Alejandro Moreno and the PRD member Jesús Zambrano claimed to have three governorships in the bag, and since yesterday they accused the federal government of helping the ruling candidates.
The Quick Counts of the INE, released by the six electoral institutes of the states, very soon put an end to the speculations of morenistas and aliancistas, with data that announce resounding victories in the six cases. Neither morenistas nor aliancistas would have real reasons to disqualify the victory of their rivals.
Talking about fraud would be absurd, unless you also want to disqualify the processes in which they won.